Free Agency Review/3 emerging trends

Winners/Losers in Free Agency and 3 emerging trends in the NFL(now and for the future):

The 5 winners(in no order):
1-Overweight DTs. I mean really folks: I’m a member of the big man’s club, I could probably talk some GM into a 2 year, 4 million deal with all the cash being thrown around to these DTs. Williams, Jenkins and Rogers all have talent, but they didn’t deserve the contracts they got—especially since all them went into system they’ve never played before. Amazing…simply amazing.

2-Cleveland Browns. They went into the season needing to shore up a porous defense, and they did it fairly cheaply(in terms of draft picks). Rogers might be an underachieving lazy ass who’s never played NT in a 3-4, but he’s got a ton of talent(and they didn’t really give up that much for him). Williams at 3-4 DE should be intriguing.

3-New England Patriots. Despite having their secondary gutted, they’re still winners in the offseason. Losing Samuel was inevitable, along with Gay and Wilson. However, they added some decent Vets in Tank Williams(who allows them to move Merriweather to CB) and Jason Webster. Also, keeping Randy Moss was key. Now they can use that #7 pick on a CB or a pass rushing LB like Gholston.

4-Buffalo Bills. Yes, they still have a question mark at both Y WR and QB. However, they did a great job improving their defensive front 7 for very little cost. Stroud, Spencer Johnson and Kawicka Mitchell make them a legit threat in the AFC barring an offensive collapse. If they add a Limus Sweed or Malcolm Kelly in round 1, watch out.

5-New Orleans Saints. A team that needed to keep their offensive core together along with making good improvements on the defense, and they did it in spades. They only lost Jeff Faine(which will sting, but its not a major wound) and convinced Deuce McAllister to push back his roster bonus in order to get more time to see how his knee is doing, but they added a very underrated CB in Randall Gay(which allows them to push David to the NB role), a very good MLB in Vilma and Dan Morgan to use as depth in the LB corps. Also, this means that they can spend their first 2 picks on shoring up both lines.

The 5 losers(in no order):

1-Miami Dolphins. 31 million in cap room and a mandate to change a talent poor roster…and they end up with Ernest Wilford, Randy Starks, Josh McCown, a couple Dallas Dbs, Tab Perry and Justin Smiley? Are kidding me? They couldn’t make 1 move for a quality player?

2-Atlanta Falcons. They’re gutting the team, and getting rid of the dead weight, but why sign Turner then? What bothers me is that its almost a half-assed gutting/rebuild. Yes, they will have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds(if the Hall trade goes through), but they didn’t make the real choices and fully gut that team of all the big contracts(Abraham, Horn, etc) and of all the Vick supporters(White, etc). If Boley just signs his tender, it’s that much worst for them.

3-Washington Redskins. I understand they’re trying to show everyone that the free spending ways of the past are exactly that, but they talked to the Falcons about DeAngelo Hall, they talked to Rosenhaus about Briggs…so doesn’t seem like a junkie trying to tell everyone that they’re clean? And to make things worse, they do nothing to improve a team with some obvious holes-even passing on cheap talent for those holes. The only logical reason to do this is to set up for a gutting in a year(from my understanding, its very easy for them to gut that team in 2009.) Its very possible that Zorn has a mandate to totally clean house and a whole passel of redskins’ veterans(Santana Moss, Shawn Springs, Cornelius Griffin, London Fletcher, etc) are auditioning for their jobs in 2008.

4-Oakland Raiders. Shock—er. Tommy Kelly is a decent 3 tech DT…they give him 50 million dollars! They have Asomugha(who’ll make 9-10 million this year just on his tender)…and they’re currently trying to acquire DeAngelo Hall(and give him 9+ million I’m certain). They have 2 decent safeties in Huff/Schweigert, and they give Wilson 40 million. Are they’re trying to make Kiffin go insane?

5-San Francisco 49ers. They continue to spend money, but they’re not making intelligent decisions. Foster was cheap, but he’s not the kinda of Rb who’ll fit in Martz’s system(and Martz likes to mess with Rbs heads, so he might try to bench Gore for him). Justin Smith is an okay DE, but signing him meant they let a quality 3-4 DE in Marques Douglas walk. And despite signing Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson, they still need a quality WR.


3 emerging trends in the NFL:

1-Trading. Trading, long dormant in the Free Agency era, seems becoming the new trend with the extensive use of the franchise tag. Previously, the franchise tag was used sparingly, with usually 1 or 2 star players tagged. In 2007 and 2008, 19 players were given this tag(a quick glance of the free agent list for 2009 means that maybe up to 20 players could conceivably get the Franchise tag). So, the net result of this is that in order to get quality players(because even B-list players are getting the tag now) you have to make a deal. And we’re seeing that in higher numbers. Until the franchise tag becomes too expensive to use at the rate it is right now, expect this to continue-especially to acquire players in that 2nd level of talent(A-/B+ level players).

2-The Zone blitz. With the combination of illegal contact rules, along with more dynamic and aggressive offensive systems, defenses are having trouble adjusting. We’ve seen offensive production continuously going up over the last few years and defenses have basically been powerless to stop it. The first adjustment was to increase pass rushers, and 3-4 hybrids(especially aggressive ones) which has met with some success, but they couldn’t re-adjust to the quicker drops and timing offense features being increasing used. What worked against the potent WCOs of the late 90s was the confusing zone blitz, expect it to come back now to try and level the playing field between the sides. The increasing value of talented DTs—especially those who can get penetration(Jenkins, Rogers, Williams, Douglas) bears this out since they have to be the front line of your pass rush. Also, expect an emphasis on athletic DEs and DE/OLB hybrid players to fit that scheme.

3-Voidable contracts. We’re already starting to see this happen in the NFL, the most prominent being the Redskins’ voiding of Mark Brunell’s contract(the Browns also activated a clause in a LB’s contract this week and voided his contract after this year) and getting out from under nearly 4 million of cap room(with zero dead cap space). Expect this to expand greatly, where players take a big payment in one year, but have a void clause the next. It’s a brilliant strategy and is win/win for both sides. A quality player will still get a decent contract from another team, and the current team will get out from under an onerous contract in exchange for a balloon payment.