There are rumors, curses and legends when it comes to the draft. And while this article will discuss three of them, there are more out there and perhaps they will be re-visited. As an attempt to head off whining and mistaken criticism: this article doesn't seek to defame or belittle any college program, but to explain why some schools seem to be unable to produce talent at certain positions.
Michigan Skill Position Players:
WRs: 11 drafted since 1990, Derrick Alexander & Amani Toomer had any real success.
TEs: 7 drafted since 1990, none had any real success.
RBs: 9 drafted, Anthony Thomas had the most success(and that was 2 1000 yard seasons).
QBs: 6 drafted, Tom Brady and nothing else of note.
OLmen: 18 drafted, Steve Hutchinson, Jon Jansen, Jeff Backus, Jon Runyan, Maurice Williams. All of who are still starters in the league.
Why: On the face of it, there might not be enough data to form a conclusion based on pro prospects, however, the Michigan Oline is always an effective unit year and year out. Since there is basically nothing from Michigan skill position talent(Brady being the only A level player), the conclusion becomes clear: the skill position talent that develops at the University of Michigan has and is using their Oline as a crutch.
This perhaps (and most probably) is based on coaching a practice. And its completely understandable, if a QB knows that he has that extra couple seconds to make his progressions, he gets used to it and when he hits the NFL, the speed of the pass rush caused him the most problems. The same problem in the passing game also applies to the WRs and TEs. If a receiver (either TE or WR) doesn’t have to improvise as much (for example: knows that he can run his assigned route most of the time) and doesn’t have to run hot routes as much, then the receiver doesn’t develop the skills that they need in the NFL. Further bolstering this argument that it is a developmental problem is the variety of WRs who have failed in the NFL. There are high upside-high production guys like David Terrell and Braylon Edwards (both of whom are fast Flankers), dazzling Split Ends like Desmond Howard, standard Flankers like Amani Toomer and Tai Streets, etc. I do concede that Derrick Alexander and Toomer had some success in the NFL (Toomer is a mid B level player), but there’s been 3 top ten pick Michigan WRs since 1990s(tied for most with Ohio State and Southern Cal) with none of the three panning out (Ohio State had Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway against David Boston and Southern Cal had Keyshawn as a moderate success and busts with Curtis Conway and Mike Williams).
The effect of the Oline become more apparent with the Michigan RBs. Anthony Thomas is the most successful Michigan RB in the NFL since 1990, and that’s not saying much. He had 2 1000-yard seasons with the Bears, and then faded away (3800 rushing yards in 76 games). Chris Perry has shown flashes of receiving ability behind Rudi Johnson, but can’t stay healthy enough to earn PT or a trade to another team. The reason for this makes the systemic flaw clearer: with such a dependable Oline, the RBs did not develop needed skill sets because they had a great oline in front of them year after year. It might be as subtle as not having to learn to wait for the blocks to develop, or learning how to make use of the crease that is there. If you look at the few Michigan Rbs who lasted or had any success in the NFL, they were power backs (Thomas, Wheatley, Hoard). This would indicate that the players are being productive only from physical traits (Michigan has yet to produce any slashing/speed Rbs who made it to the NFL, that would serve as confirmation of this theory), and not from technique.
What does this mean for the Draft:
Its fair simple, you shouldn’t avoid Michigan skill position players, but drop them at least 20-40 spots on the draft board rankings. The history is far too strong that they are risky picks at best. Michigan Olinemen, however, should be rated about 7-15 picks higher than similar talent.
Virginia Tech Defenders:
Since 1987(Beamer’s first year at Va Tech):
35 defensive players drafted, only 1 has ever made a pro bowl (DeAngelo Hall). 10 of them were drafted in the first 3 rounds. Few C level talent players and no B level talent defenders.
Why: What is simply stunning is the disconnect between the effectiveness of the Virginia Tech defense over nearly 2 decades under Beamer (with varying results, but generally the Va Tech defense has been a solid unit since the early 1990s) and the amount of players this defense has produced for the NFL. 35 players for them in 20 years isn’t a very high amount of players (as a comparison: Miami has had 67 defensive players drafted in that same time period, Alabama has had 57, Oregon has had 29 and South Carolina 25) for any program. So, what is the reason for this disconnect between performance on the college field and development of NFL talent? Why has there only been 1 Va Tech defender who has made a pro bowl as a defender despite the year in and year out effectiveness of the Va Tech defense? The answer seems a bit simple: Beamer’s secret isn’t getting top talent and building the defense around the talent, Beamer and his coordinator have a scheme and go after the talent to fit that scheme. What is interesting is the constant of what kinds of players Beamer gets, and its usually undersized or oversized players for the NFL eyes, undersized DLmen (Engleberger and Adibi seems to be the only one close to the standard NFL size for a DE, but guys like Chamblee, Tapp and Jonathan Lewis seem to be the norm), over-sized Safeties (Rouse, Jimmy Williams and Willie Pile, but the Cbs tend to be normal sized-but slow) and undersized Lbs (Moore, C. brown, Ken Brown). Even this year, the Hokie defense has produced 2 pro prospects (Aaron Rouse and Nolan Burcette). Rouse will be a first day pick, Burcette might be lucky to make it into NFL Europe. Both fit this paradigm, Rouse is a massive Strong Safety will should be moved to LB and Burcette is another undersized DLman(6-1 250).
What does this mean for the Draft:
This is no slam on Virginia Tech and how they’ve built a program here, but it does call into question any defensive prospects that are eligible to be drafted. Based on the results, it is safe to drop any Virginia Tech defenders 40-50 picks as compared to similar talent.
Jeff Tedford Qbs
Since 1992(his first coaching job as QB coach of Fresno State), Tedford has coached 7 QB drafted into the NFL(8 if you count Billy Volek who was undrafted, 9 if you count David Carr-Tedford was there for his redshirt freshman year), and none of them have had much success into the NFL. Dilfer won a super bowl, but wasn’t that solid a player for Baltimore and just didn’t make mistakes. The list of Qbs:
Trent Dilfer, Mark Basotti, Akili Smith, Billy Volek, AJ Feeley, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller and Aaron Rodgers.
Why: What is interesting is how diverse this group of QBs are. You have three hard throwing immobile QBs in Dilfer, Volek and Boller, a couple light throwing mobile guys in Harrington and Feeley and two hybrids in Smith and Rodgers: yet they’ve all been failures (I grant that Rodgers hasn’t received a chance yet, but has looked shaky in limited play). What is stunning is that the Tedford Qbs looked good with little NFL prospects at WR or TE and on the Oline. So where does the flaw lay? The answer, this author believes, is at RB.
The one thing that the Tedford Qbs, when Tedford is running the offense, have had has been talent and production at RB. Tedford’s system is an inherently a running based system and the Qb is not quite a manager, but isn’t asked to carry the entire offensive load. This has been most highly seen in his time in California(I will return to Oregon soon). In 2002(Kyle Boller’s last year), the Bears had 1 1000-yard rusher(Igber) and solid consistency at the RB position throughout the entire season. In 2003(Rodgers’ first season), Echemandu and JJ Arrington combined for 1800 yards and 18 Tds. In 2004(Rodgers’ last year), JJ Arrington and MarShawn Lynch combined for nearly 3000 yards and 23 TDs. Lynch has continued to maintain this solid rushing tradition, going for over 2500 yards and 21 TDs by himself in 05 and 06. The failures of Boller, even with a consistent running game, shows that the problem is-like the Michigan WRs/Rbs/QBs is systemic. On to Oregon: For Akili Smith’s time(97 and 98), the top 2 rushers for the Ducks combined for 1400 yards(1997) and 1100 yards with 14 TDs in 1998. In 1999(Feeley’s year), Ruben Droughns carried the rushing attack for 1100 yards and 9 TDs. In 2001(Harrington’s big year), the Ducks had 2 1000-yard rushers(Morris and the Onterrio “Whizzanator” Smith). The year before, Harrington was a solid Qb also, and Maurice Morris carried the rushing attack for almost 1200 yards.
The pattern is far too clear for everyone to see here: the NFL shouldn’t be looking at Tedford Qbs, then should be looking at Tedford RBs(especially considering the poor talent from their Olines). What is even more interesting is that despite many of the Tedford QBs having solid rushing attacks in the NFL, they still couldn’t put it together as competent in the NFL. The problem with these series of prospects is systemic, and Tedford is retarding their development(or not bothering to develop them) to focus on the rushing game.
What does this mean for the Draft:
Simply put: Don’t draft Tedford Qbs. Drop them 2-3 rounds at least, and still look to the next Qb on your draft board instead of risking another failure. However, look at Tedford Rbs and move them up 10-15 spots compared to similar talent.
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28 comments:
I wouldn't go so far as to call Curtis Conway a bust...
594 catches, 8230 receiving yards, 52 receiving TDs (to go along with 3 rushing and 2 passing TDs) isn't a bad career...
Mike Williams, on the other hand...
He had decent stats, but those stats were over 12 seasons(he only had 2 very good seasons imo). And it certainly wasn't worth a top 7 pick, especial when three potential hall of famers went in the next six picks after Conway: Willie Roaf, Brad Hopkins and Jerome Bettis.
Michigan TEs- haven't Tuman and Shea had some degree of success in the NFL?
Both are pretty solid blockers(which might lend credence to the OLine theory in a tangential way), but as recievers, no.
Tuman:
42 catches 491 yards 6 TDs in 114 games
Shea:
97 catches 857 yards 7 Tds in 65 games
I may be a little biased, but are you really already calling Braylon a bust? Putting up 884 yards while playing with awful qb's and coming off major knee surgery is hardly anything to sneeze at.
Griese has made a pro bowl during a career otherwise decimated by freak injuries, which you can hardly blame on the success of Michigan's offensive line.
Des Howard won a Super Bowl MVP... I'm sure Packers fans would argue that he was worth having in the league, even though they didn't draft him.
Furthermore... of the backs, most have started at one point or another... BJ Askew is a starting NFL fullback. You can hardly blame Chris Perry for being drafted by a team that already had a pro bowl RB, nor can you blame him for injuries sustained because he's not running behind Michigan's O-Line anymore.
The problem with your list is you make no distinction as to where these players got picked. The majority of these players were not first round or even first day picks, and with at least two that were, you've already given up on them not even three years into their careers. Shame...
i'd argue Jay Riemersma as Michigan's best TE prospect rather than Tuman or Shea. Jay, in 111 games, had 221 catches and 23 TDs playing as primarily as a 3rd or 4th option behind Reed, Moulds, and Price.
Addressing your comments in order:
1-Braylon is the subject of much debate between myself and the gentleman who wrote out 40 times column. We have a bet riding on his performance actually. The fact is that high first round WRs show what they have in their first two years, and while Edwards' stats were decent last year, he hasn't shown the raw talent or production to justify his draft position at all. And 880ish yards isn't that impressive frankly, especially for the first receiver taken in a draft with 11 WRs taken in the first 2 rounds.
2-Griese did make the 2001 pro bowl, and had a couple B level seasons for the Broncos, but he's far from a remotely successful player in the NFL, and can't even beat out Rex Grossman for a job now. I wouldn't categorize him as even High C level talent.
3-Des Howard won a SB MVP as a kick returner, he has been nothing but a failure as a WR. And this would just prove my point further. Howard has zero receiving skills, could only succeed in the position that requires the least amount of development talent wise.
4-BJ Askew is a decent FB, but that doesn't disprove anything written. I like Chris Perry(and think he has a chance at being successful if used like Brian Westbrook), but despite the Bengals needing picks/defensive players and not benching Rudi for him, no one is making any serious offers Perry(which I'm surprised by).
5-Where they are drafted is irrelevant considering the use/need of mid-late picks since free agency was instituted. As for giving up on players early, players-especially skill position ones-show what they are fairly quickly.
Just to point out your contradictions:
You said: " 5-Where they are drafted is irrelevant considering the use/need of mid-late picks since free agency was instituted. As for giving up on players early, players-especially skill position ones-show what they are fairly quickly."
I find it interesting that draft position doesn't matter to you now, but in making the argument just below against Conway being a bust, draft position mattered:
"And it certainly wasn't worth a top 7 pick, especial when three potential hall of famers went in the next six picks after Conway: Willie Roaf, Brad Hopkins and Jerome Bettis."
You make some interesting arguments but you haven't defined your own positions well.
Aaron Shea, Tuman, and of course Jay Reimersma have had pretty good careers--longevity. What happened to Ricky Dudley, that high draft pick with the soft hands?
You should really look at the stats closer when defining your levels. Derrick Alexander had a pretty above average 10-year career, with a better ypc than Glenn, Galloway or Toomer. DA also had three seasons with 9 or more TDs. Glenn's had 7 in his best season and only 44 td in 12 seasons to 40 in 10 for DA. Oh, and Glenn's best season was his rookie year. He had 90 catches then but hasn't had more than 79 since. And that 79 was in 2000.
Galloway is the best out of those 4 players, and though he's never caught more than 83 passes in a season he has 71 TDs in 13 years.
Michigan has had a great O-lines over the last 17 years, but I wouldn't not spend a top pick not to get a Mario Manningham in 2008. And I wouldn't draft Troy Smith before the 5th round, or Ginn Jr. before the 2nd. Both are pretty overratede products of OSU's spread offense under Tressel. Go to defense if you want a good Buckeye.
Ginn is fast, but he's fragile. NFL scouts have already lowered Smith's potential based on the Combine and Pro Day.
A big reason for Tedford QBs being busts is how he has them read the field.
As the QB leaves the huddle and looks at the D, from that point he chooses a half and works his progressions on that half only.
It works in college as it simplifies things, but that's a bad habit in the pros.
To address your points:
-Its not a contradiction since, he-I believe-wasn't referring to individual players, but that this comparison should take into account where all the draftees were drafted as part of the assessment of the michigan development of skill position of talent. I brought up Conway as a comparison of top ten draft picks at WR specifically, but when assessing how all the draftees panned out I don't believe that where there were drafted is relevant. Its a complex concept I grant lol.
-Rickey Dudley is irrelevant since he wasn't a Michigan player, but he played 9 years in the NFL btw(and had nearly 3 times the yards as Tueman and Shea combined). I don't why you're bringing him up.
-Alexander had a couple decent seasons, but 7000 yards and 40 TDs in 127 games isn't that good.
-Alexander: 417 catches 6971 yards 16.7 ypc 40 TDs
Terry Glenn: 593 catches 8823 yards 14.9ypc 44 TDs(in 10 more games than Alexander)
Galloway: 612 catches 9558 yards 15.6 ypc 71 TDs(in 40 more games)
Toomer: 561 catches 8157 yards 14.5 ypc 47 Tds(in 31 more games)
I would take the OSU WRs over the Michigan guys, and its not close.
-I agree on OSU offensive players. Personally, I would pass on Ginn until round 3.
A lot of these so-called "busts" have been struck by injuries, which is much more a freak thing than a "being a Michigan guy" thing.
You even said yourself that Perry shows flashes of brilliance when not injured.
Braylon was supposed to miss the first 7 weeks of this season after shredding his knee last year, so to claim he was at 100% all year is ridiculous. To claim he had a QB that anyone would classify as "functional" is just unfair.
Brian Griese was a Pro-Bowler before tearing up his shoulder.
Sure Howard was selected too high for his eventual production, but if you think a Super Bowl MVP trophy is something to sneeze at, you are much braver than I.
And, uh, Amani Toomer has been one of the most consistent producers over his career of any of the WRs drafted his year. He's never been a guy who will wow you, but the guys you are comparing him to were drafted well above him. He's definitely a second-round pick well spent.
If you're going to invent a rule, and ignore counterexamples to it, you could just say whatever you want. "Miami players drafted since 1995 suck except Ray Lewis, Jeremy Shockey, Ed Reed..." See, I can do it, too.
Addressing you comments in order:
-Struck by injuries? Like who? Braylon missed 6 games in 2005, and Perry has missed most of 2 seasons, but that would still leave tons of players who didn't have injuries as their excuse.
-I said Perry showed flashes of receiving ability, not brilliance. And that if used like Brian Westbrook, he would have a chance at success. Please do not put words in my mouth.
-Braylon didn't miss a game in 06, and its ridiculous since he had his best month in 2006 in September. Apparently his knee injury didn't stop him from having 2 100 yard games in the first 3 weeks, but must have come back for his terrible october.
-Griese had a decent season in 2004, so I guess his shoulder didn't limit him that much? Yes, he was a pro bowler, but he was an alternate(and his stats weren't that impressive frankly)
-So, he was a bust, but he wasn't according to you? Does that mean Larry Brown is a good CB because he had 1 great game in his career and won the SB MVP?
-As for Toomer being one of the best/most consistent of the draft he was taken in: Marvin Harrison(15 picks ahead of Toomer), Terrell Owens(55 picks after Toomer), Keyshawn(who is surprisingly over 10,000 yards)(33 picks ahead of Toomer), Terry Glenn(26 picks ahead of Toomer) Eric Moulds(10 picks ahead of Toomer), Musin Muhammed(9 picks after Toomer) and Joe Horn(101 picks after Toomer) were in that draft also. All of those guys have made pro bowls also, something Toomer has never done. Toomer is a solid complementary WR at best. And sadly, is the best WR Michigan has produced for a long time(or ever).
-if you have counter-examples, feel free to offer them. Toomer, Brian Griese, Braylon Edwards and Chris Perry aren't that.
-I didn't say that all Michigan skill position players suck(again putting words in my mouth) or will always be busts, my point(which was obviously lost on you) is that the odds are extremely risky for them. Which is what I said in my conclusion.
It seems your criteria is a bit harsh. Basically you are saying that being a starter on at the NFL level is nothing impressive. You only count All-Pro caliber players as draft success. This seem to me pure lunacy. Please indicate a program that HAS produced consistent All-Pro caliber skill players. To reach that level in the NFL is an extremely rare mix of talent, luck, system, and accompanying players. Players like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Landainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Randy Moss, Chad Johnson are just plain extremely rare. And as any list of current All-Pro players you can produce, have almost not discernible pattern as far as colleges go. If you just consider drafting players who make the team and have multiple year careers, often in a starting role, I believe Michigan matches up with any program you can name.
To Bobo:
I think you miss the point of the entire article. I'm not saying these programs(Virginia Tech, Michigan and Tedford) are failures as programs, I'm saying that they have troubles developing players in a certain area or position(Tedford, ford example has done well developing Rbs for the NFL imo and Michigan is very good at developing OL prospects). There's too much of a pattern in all three that there is systemic failure by all of them and why-if you're making a draft chart-you should be cautious of players at certain positions from these programs. As for your final comment, Michigan has been one of the most successful programs in developing NFL players, but the majority of their successful and star level NFL players have been defenders or Olinemen. Virginia Tech has produced more successful offensive players in the NFL than defenders, which is odd considering their focus on defense and special teams.
While your conclusions re Michigan may be somewhat valid your analysis is frankly pretty bad.
QB's, not one big talent in all that time and yet they all keep making the NFL and Brady is a Hall of Famer. Did any of them get drafted above the 6th round?
RB's. Did you bother to look at any stats and have you seen Michigan play? Their avg yards per carry has generally not been very good, certainly hasn't stood out. I would tell you its somewhat because of the OL, but if you're right and the OL is so good, maybe its because the backs just aren't very good. I have not been particularly surprised by the pro careers of any of the Michigan backs...not there fault people keep reaching for them, Perry had no business in the first round, Atrain was pedestrian, Wheatley had size and speed but no wiggle at all, Biak had talent but was finished by injuries, the rest were nobodies. You mention we never have success with speed backs, we almost never play speed backs, thats our style.
WR's. Calling Braylon a bust at this point is ridiculous. Your answer to the other poster again ignored that he's playing on a team with no running game and a terrible QB. Replace Reggie Wayne with BE and see if he doesn't get more than 800 yards. Desmond was a bust, no doubt, but frankly he's suffered the same fate as most high rated tiny WRs in the NFL. Very few 5'9'' 180 guys are making it big these days. Terrell was a surprise although he clearly survived in college on his physicality and was lacking in quickness. No one thought Streets or the other guys were going to do anything.
In order:
1-You're entitled to your opinion.
2(QBs)-Todd Collins and Brian Griese were a 2nd and 3rd rounder respectively. Yes, they keep making the nfl, but Brady, Grbac and Griese are the only ones who have played much(if at all).
3(Rbs)-Their backs have been productive in college, you can debate all you want how talented they are(thats not the issue at hand, but their development). You have tended more towards power back, but recently have been playing more speed/slasher types(Perry, Hart, Grady, etc). The power backs have been so-so in the NFL, and no Michigan Rb since 1990 has been a success by any objective measure.
4(WR)-Top 10 WRs show their worth by the 2nd year and break past 1000 yards. If they don't, the odds are heavily against them ever doing it(I can only think of one WR who did in the last 7-9 years who did). Blaming the Qb/Offense/etc is frankly bullshit. Andre Johnson, despite having a poor Qb, poor offense(31st in 03 and 23rd in 04), poor offensive line and no 2nd receving threat still managed to rack up 2000 yards combined in 03 and 04(and 1000+ yards in 04). The rest of the Michigan WR have been shaky at best(Toomer and Alexander were the best, but thats not saying much.
I'm not saying that a Michigan skill position player will a guaranteed bust, I'm saying its an extremely risky proposition. The facts back up this assertion.
Ah, touche my fine fellow. You also seemed to miss the point of my post. I am interested in your research, but I found it a bit flawed. I accept your critique of Tedford QB's, that his techniques are successful in college football but not in the NFL. This is a strong argument backed up with fact. I merely question your case in stating whether certain college programs can produce All-Pro skill players or not. My point is this, compare your finding with a school that you would push up the draft list for skill players. Do this for Miami, Texas, Florida, USC and see what you get. I did a search of the USC draft history going back to 1994.
QBs drafted----5
2 were NFL non-factors, Rob Johnson maybe well below the Brian Griese level,Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart may be good/great, jury still out
RBs drafted----5
Justin Fargas (a Michigan transfer) can't hack it in Oakland,a couple of non-factor FB's and then Lendale White and Reggie Bush
WRs drafted----10
Keyshawn Johnson while never at the Marvin Harrison or Jerry Rice level has had a very good NFL career. Johnie Morton, in the Amani Toomer mold. Then nobody at all out of the other 8 guys could even keep on a roster. Mike Williams and Keary Colbert might still have jobs, nothing to brag about though
TEs drafted----5
Johny McWilliams-NO!
Billy Miller-----No!
Dominique Byrd---2 Catches
I would say the Michigan guys match up pretty well here. Dare I say, maybe a bit more luck drafting Michigan players. But I would like to see Miami, Texas, and Florida too. Maybe I'll get on that
And USC has produced far more defenders than offensive players. As for your comparisons:
QB: Brady is a legend, Palmer is as good a QB right now in the NFL. Leinart looks like he'll be an extremely solid player at the minimum(leaving Arizona couldn't hurt lol). Griese has the edge over Johnson, but the rest of the trash negates each other imo.
RB: Bush did more(and appears to be on track for even greater things) than any RB in either program. WHo knows with White, Fargas must have a video tape of Al Davis to ensure a permanent roster spot/contract. The MIchigan Rbs are nothing to brag about though. 2 players who have gotten 1000 yard seasons and little else.
WR: Keyshawn is not in the class of Harrison et al, but he is probably a hall of famer(I don't think he should be, but he is top 25 in receptions and yards ever, and has a few more years left in him). Morton and Toomer negate each other imo. And the best of the rest from both are nothing much.
TE: Neither program has produced much at TE, especially as a WR. BIlly Miller has been the most successful as a receiver.
Whether Michigan matches up well iyo is irrelevant. The point of this article is find causality. I believe that it is the talent and development of the Michigan Oline that leads to systemic failure. USC was in decline for a long time until Carroll took it over and the talent being produced now there has gotten progressively better. Maybe in a few years there will be more evidence for a comparison.
As for other programs:
Miami: No one compares to the King. I can't think of another program that has produced so much talent at just about every position(Qb and K might be the only two they havent done that in) and Miami has build around similar philosophies (Davis-Coker-Shannon) for a long time.
Texas: almost the Anti Michigan. Good at developing skill position, terrible at developing Olinemen.
Florida: Spurrier rules(will be the subject of another article).
A follow up. I just ran the 1994-2006 drafts for Miami.
QBs drafted----2
Ken Dorsey played a bit
WRs Drafted----12
Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson are the stars, and the only one with any real NFL playing time. 3 out of 12 and the best one, Wayne, is the #2 guy on his team.
RBs Drafted---11
James Stewart has a couple decent years, Najeh Davenport earns a paycheck, MaGahee the jury is still out on, 6 bums, and 3 good/great RBs in Edge, Portis, and Gore.
TEs Drafted--5
Bubba Franks, Shockey, and Winslow Jr. are all great Tight Ends.
So with Miami, no QB success in any way, little success with the WRs, 3 for 12 by my count. But RBs have porduced 3 All Stars with MaGahee still jury out on, and the TEs look extremely good.
Miami has produced about 6 or 7 very good NFL skill position players over that time. The production of 6 All-Pro caliber RBs and TEs over that time is indeed impressive, compared to Michigan and USC. Though I did expect to find a bit more success in the WR department.
You have to be kidding? Miami has produced 3 of arguably the top ten WRs in the NFL currently(and are being far more successful than michigan products) and you say this is little success? Just a couple years before 1990, Miami produced Michale Irvin, Brian Blades and Brett Perriman. Irvin is a HOFer(shouldn't be imo). Blades and Perriman would have been better than most of the crap Michigan put out at WR.
Miami blows Michigan out of the water in developing just offensive skill position talent. Its not close.
I don't understand the point of your post because it undermines your argument and doesn't make any sense. The point of my article(again lost on you) is systemic causality. The talent of the Michigan Oline and development of such leads to retardation of development for the skill position talent. How does going through Miami(or other programs)'s NFL talent prove or disprove this?
2- But again, overall if anything Mich QB's have out performed their draft position so for you to say they should be dropped down doesn't make sense.
3 - You haven't seen Mike Hart play if you call him speedy, Grady is not speedy or a slasher and I wouldn't describe Perry in that manner either.
4 - Your answer is somewhat bizarre and seems kind of forced. Johnson had 200 yards receiving more than BE and the same TDs their 2nd year, and BE was coming off a major injury (notwithstanding your comments re that). Thats your basis for saying QBs don't matter and BE is not living up to the hype? Your comment about only 1 receiver not making 1000 yards in his first two years and then turning out...well I quickly looked up 2 guys, Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne, both had BE type #s their 2nd years....
In order:
-So, Drew Henson's 18 career passes in out performing his draft position? Tom Brady did, but Griese was worth a third rounder(considering Hines Ward was the pick after him and Matt Hasselback was the next QB taken)? Was Todd Collins worth a high 2nd rounder? You're just looking for reasons no matter if they fit or not. Your point here doesn't make any sense.
-Hart isn't a Clinton Portis type slashing back, he's a more balanced back. But is much more of a slasher than Wheatley or Anthony Thomas were.
-Right, because statistical analysis and using historical evidence is "bizarre" and "forced". I guess you don't have an actual answer to contradict my point if you're trying to spin it that way? As for Edwards' injury, I answered this. His terrible knee injury must have disappeared in september when he had 2 good 100 yard games, then mysteriously come back in his horrible october. As for Smith and Wayne, thanks again for not reading what I wrote. Neither one was a top ten WR(which is what I wrote). In the future, read before you comment please.
boy I just happeded by from a link by mgoblog but you are both belligerent and illogical.
Yes Mich QBs on the whole have outperformed their draft position. Brady is a hall of famer from the 6th round, did Collins underperform, well sure although lots of 2nd rd QBs never make it, does the average 3rd rounder have a better career than Griese, I'd say no but I can't prove it. Grbac and Navarre outperformed just by being in the league and Grbac was a starter for years and years. Henson? Notwithstanding his hype, wasn't he a 2nd day pick? In any event a guy who leaves football for 4 years really isn't a fair example imo. More or less comes down to is a 2nd and a 6th worth Brady and Collins, ah yes.
Yes Hart is more of a slasher than Wheatley and Atrain. Good point. He's more of a slasher than TJ Duckett too.
You are right I didn't see the top 10 qualification, god I'm a bad person. Regardless your point is ridiculous. So if a guy is top he better than get 1000 in year 2 or else, if not in top 10, doesn't matter. 200 yards less than AJ, doomed. injury be damned because he played well in Sept, not relevant to endurance or experience. So silly.
In order:
-You're not debating the actual issue here and are trying to drag it off into semantics. Tom Brady is a great QB, Grbac had a couple good seasons, Griese the same(maybe), and then nothing-no matter where they were drafted. But whether John Navarre outperformed being a 6th or 7th rounder because he's barely still in the NFL is irrelevant to whether Michigan QBs have a good chance of success. They don't.
-What does TJ Duckett have to do with anything?
-Considering that this is a written medium, if you want to have intelligent discussion, basic reading comprehension is required.
As for thinking that comparison silly, tough shit. Don't take it up with me, its the recent history of top ten WRs. And as for his injury, you have a valid point if he slowly built his production and did best later in the season. He didn't, so using his injury isn't a valid excuse for his failures.
Whoa, easy there. The point of my post is that I earlier stated I wanted to check the numbers on a few other programs. You called Miami the king, so out of personal interest I looked at their draft history over the same time frame as Michigan and USC. I did not intentionally leave out the 80's Miami WRs, they were just outside the time frame I was looking at. I'm not sure what you think my argument is so I will clarify it again.
Your Argument: Michigan skill players only have success in college due to superior O-line play. This is supported by you showing the lack of stand out performances of Michigan skill guys in the NFL. Same point being made for Va Tech defensive players. That they have success not because of talent, but because of a scheme.
My Argument: The lack star skill players from Michigan is not really all that different from most major programs. Plenty of guys drafted, but over a 10-12 year time span, probably only 1-2 Hall of Fame caliber guys.
Looking at the results of some quick checks, I think my position is somewhat validated by the USC comparison. Miami blows BOTH those programs out of the water. As well as Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, or almost any other major historical football power you can name. Miami is indeed at a whole other level when it comes to skill players. Although, is this due to Miami's unique ability to develop skill players, or is this due to the state of Florida producing an extremely high number of talented skill position high school athletes. California, Texas, and Florida alone account for about 33% of all NFL players. So it seems logical that the recruiting powerhouses in those states would produce the most NFL talent. So the fact that Michigan is even on the same page as USC as far as NFL success seems a bit shocking to me given the difference between the high school talent in Michigan and California
What undermines your point is that while Michigan is not putting out quality at the skill positions, they are putting out quality on the OLine uneven with their quality from the skill positions. USC isn't putting out quality OL uneven with their quality from the rest of the offense(Boselli was the best, and there's been a couple other decent Olmen). That was one of the major points of the article. If I was discussing entirety of talent produced visa-vie success on the field on college(which I am with Va Tech defensively, which is why I brought up comparisons to other programs), you might have a point.
Still consider Braylon Edwards a bust? I guess it actually might help to have something approaching competence at the quarterback position.
Braylon had a great season, but the Browns made some organizational choices which really helped:
1-Quality at QB. I liked Anderson at Oregon State, and its great to see him succeed.
2-New offensive system which made KWII the entire focus of the passing game. And they could do this because..
3-Heavy investment in the Oline, which allowed Winslow to be more a WR than TE(much like how the Redskins use Cooley).
Braylon's had a great year, and I don't think anyone can call him a bust now(we'll see if he can keep it up for the future). This doesn't significant change the odds on Michigan skill position players though.
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